The Economy

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

I suspect that this downturn in housing will make 2008 look like a warm-up.

[soterik HTH....! Find all posts View Profile Close soterik]

Yah.... don't know. Maybe.... We have a severe overall shortage in housing in our nation. I do see the issues within the chart, well noted. But in 2008 there was a lot of stated income purchases of housing, and a bunch of issues in the secondary market. Will it be more of a regional issue? Tertiary market issues? The lowest income levels have already been hit hard, and it will continue, it's the middle class that will get hit hard. Short term relief? none... perhaps a resolution in Ukraine for a "visible" begin to a solution on that end?

Within Revlons chapter 11 filing this week was the statement of a 36% shortfall in their manufacturing supply chain, and then that shortfall pushes prices higher. I see shortfalls in my world in chrome plating as my plater is paying higher prices for supplies (within shortfalls in their world). China and Taiwan supplies a lot of our markets here, and 40 ft containers shipments are still stratospheric in pricing... and now the fuel that supplies those ships is more expensive.

Are high fuel prices the answer to high fuel prices? There's an article on that, but fuel is so essential in the transportation of all of our goods (rail, truck, ship, air).

A complete side conversation would be the shortfall in staffing we see, and we're at a 3.6% unemployment rate nationally. No lifeguards, summer camp staffing, signs up for "help wanted" at essentially every store/restaurant in my business community.

I have more questions/comment than answers, I realize that.

Anybody see that Triumph the Insult Dog was arrested/detained this week?

E

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

A complete side conversation would be the shortfall in staffing we see, and we're at a 3.6% unemployment rate nationally. No lifeguards, summer camp staffing, signs up for "help wanted" at essentially every store/restaurant in my business community.

I believe that to be a major cultural sea change. One of the driving forces of America's success has been a strong work ethic and we see that seemingly decrease with each generation as things get increasingly comfy. I recently posted about so many young bright folks, mainly men, who are "professional" poker players. Easy money appears to have become the number one attraction as a "career" goal. And don't get me started on the LIV golf "tour". I think that this is a symptom a wider issue, which is simply money above all.

Capitalism is fine as long as there guard rails and context. Otherwise everything is about money and the contest turns into greed. We all have our own ideas about guard rails and of course that's an area of intense social tension. Regardless, we need some kind of moral compass.



Our generation has done well financially. Much of America is rich and prosperous. But it looks that the following generations are starting to compete on how to dissipate wealth. They don't have a work ethic and they're stupid and uneducated (In one of the street bits one was asked the other day what the largest city in the world was and she said Asia. Her friend said no it has to be Europe.). Meanwhile of course China has us in their sights. Future events appear to be pretty much inevitable,

In his book "Changing World Order", Ray Dalio has nailed the cycles and determinants that are in control:


How do you feel those are trending in the U.S.? I imagine most have heard Dalio's advice on how to turn things around and succeed:

1. Spend less than you earn.
2. Be kind to each other.

Talk is interesting but probably meaningless as the die appears to be cast. I'll go ahead and my participation in this discussion because I could babble endlessly and start boring even myself. And probably less than 50% of what I think I know is true.

Cheers,
John

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

Another chart...

[Bullethead Oil Cooled Heart Find all posts View Profile Close Bullethead]

You guys are pus*ys I remember getting a deal at 14% 30 year mortgage and 21% on a CD. That was before China produced everything, only Granada and Central America were being bombed and Miami was living off coke money. Fun times!

Word. We worked in Miami in the early '80s...

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

IF you believe that there could be challenging economic times ahead, perhaps including larger increases in the cost of fuel and food (and probably everything else). and shortages including food. a stock market that will fall further, interest rates that will rise further, housing prices that will fall further, etc., what are you doing to prepare? Have you given thought of moving to a more rural setting? Have you thought about storing food? Have you thought about moving to another country? Are you building your liquidity? Are you trying to take shelter in gold? In crypto? Are you buying farm land? Are you buying guns and ammunition?

Share what you are willing to share. I feel strongly that it's important to have a strategy moving forward as we face such uncertain times. And there are a number of sophisticated folks here across a broad array of interests and political persuasions.

Thanks,
John

[68S_SK2 2.0S Sportkit II Find all posts View Profile Close 68S_SK2]

My personal thoughts and forecasts based on the Ukraine war situation (rising energy costs with all the consequences for the entire economy), disrupted supply chain and Corona:

• Economic growth for Germany in 2022 around zero, 2023 recession.
• Recession in the EU for 2022 and 2023. Recession 2023 ROW also.
• Inflation rate 2022 8-10% in Germany, the same for EU, less for ROW.
• Stock market German Dax will fall from 12XXX to 6000 or maximum 8000 points at the end of 2022.
• Crypto will fall to worthless.
• Raw material prices for production will fall caused by the recession.
• Real estate crash is to be feared.

In summary, the same consequences for the global economy. Raising interest rates and economic recession harbor additionally the risks of a bank crash or national bankruptcy for highly indebted countries.

If Russia stops its gas supplies to Europe or a new virulent Corana mutation emerges next winter, the situation will get even worse.

What are the personal consequences of this scenario. There will be a loss of wealth anyway, so the question will be how to lose least:

• Reduce your stock market portfolio to an acceptable basic deficit.
• Keep your properties in good locations as they will preserve at least a certain value, sell the others with the current high prices.
• Reduction of cash assets by buying gold (gold market value will rise caused by the huge amount of free cash following stock market sales) or paying off your loans.
• to be continued....

I don’t think that for example storing food is effective as the feared stagflation will have us in the tongs for 2 or 3 years.

Everyone should work on this personal to-do list to reduce the risks.

These are just my very personal thoughts about the current economic situation.
Claudius

[Silverc4s 2.2L Find all posts View Profile Close Silverc4s]

All the Democrats that are now unhappy should have been more active in their local communities when George Soros than was funding socialist DAs across the country, and Mark Zuckerberg and his cronies were spending upwards of $500M to take control of hundreds of Voting yprecincts in swing states in 2020. Truth is, more than 70% of those holding elected office at all levels government are in it for themselves first, the oath and the Constitution be damned if they get in the way.
ask anyh newly elected US Representative what they are able to do as soon as they get toDC.

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

ask any newly elected US Representative what they are able to do as soon as they get toDC.

They spend an unbelievable amount of their time dialing for dollars for their next campaign. Often 6-8 hours a day with a goal of raising $18,000 daily.

https://www.termlimits.com/congress-...sing-priority/

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

I am very glad our bread and butter is Porsche/BMW/Audi repair and maintenance in a very affluent market. Arguably there have been 6 recessions between 1973-2020. In every one of them our service biz has flourished, and our best year ever was during Covid.

I truly hope gas goes to $10/gal and the recession cripples the U.S.

Only THEN will voters in the Church of the Democratic party understand that they're in a dangerous cult and they serve an impotent god.

[sebaroher Seabass Find all posts View Profile Close sebaroher]

I am very glad our bread and butter is Porsche/BMW/Audi repair and maintenance in a very affluent market. Arguably there have been 6 recessions between 1973-2020. In every one of them our service biz has flourished, and our best year ever was during Covid.

I truly hope gas goes to $10/gal and the recession cripples the U.S.

Only THEN will voters in the Church of the Democratic party understand that they're in a dangerous cult and they serve an impotent god.

I have no issue with those who asked for it getting their just desserts, my only problem with that is the innocent people who didn't vote for the crazies will have to suffer.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

Seb, such is life in a Republic. Sacrifices have to be made in order to put Humpty Dumpty back together. Suck it up soldier through.

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

Big news. It looks like the Fed is kicking the can down the road and the day of reckoning appears to be delayed. They chickened out at the first sign of real weakening in the economy, i.e. Walmart and other retailers softening. Play now, pay later plan still in effect.

[bob joyce 2.4L Find all posts View Profile Close bob joyce]

john. 2x 75 basis points in a row is greater than any other time that the fed tightened
yes, this is currently a historic rise in inflation
being prudent is the wise path
no telling what collateral/unforeseen consequences could occur
have all the shoes fallen from the bit coin correction?
saying you are going to stop inflation by raising interest rates is cave man tactics.

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

Don't get me wrong Bob. I hope they kick the can down the road until I'm 95 years old (not too long now).