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  • Stock Market Game

    Let's do something fun. My sense is that we may be in for an extended bear market. Right or wrong about that, let's take a shot at predicting the bottom. Winner gets a chicken dinner.

    My prediction:

    S&P: low of 2850
    John Audette
    www.911bestinclass.com

  • #2
    And one more. Will Bitcoin lose its peg at 20K?
    John Audette
    www.911bestinclass.com

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    • #3
      timeframe?

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    • #4
      Great question……I am totally focused on gas,oil energy & Apple
      So my sense is no mater what the dow S&P nasdaq do can’t see these going anyway but up & high dividends
      But S&P bottoms @ 3150 Bitcoin fades another 12%

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      • #5
        3636.87

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        • #6
          you will have to take into account that the last decade and a half have not been "real"
          so, if you were going to use charting software with trend lines and Fibonacci's... well those worked well within these "hopped-up" times.
          And if there really is going to be quantitative tightening that could be a whole new ball game.
          Also, I believe the fed has learned that supporting the market has far more merits that the fed guys of old believed.
          And John.
          just as AI created your Picaso
          The fed has AI in its pocket
          This fed is more capable than any other regime by far.
          Last edited by bob joyce; 09-01-2022, 02:07 PM.

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          • #7
            I'm thinking that there are two bullish things that have not been discussed much. The first is on-shoring. American companies are serious about moving manufacturing capability back to America and that could be huge. Billions of dollars of investments in plants and lots of good jobs. The second is electric vehicles. There are a large number of battery plants being built. Just a few years ago they would have been built off-shore but now they're being built in the U.S. EV's are an (under-estimated) revolution. Technology change of this magnitude is bound to have a profoundly positive effect on the economy. Finally a couple of things on the good news side of ledger.
            John Audette
            www.911bestinclass.com

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            • #8
              I wonder how companies will keep their high profit margins up. Before everything went to China margins were smaller. On shoring with equivalent profit margins will be difficult without more automisation. (is that a word?).
              Also money is no longer free as it was during quantitive easing, as Bob states.
              Transnationals are going to face the same problems as smaller domestic businesses have confronted for a while. Higher wages and customers not willing to accept higher prices.
              I heard the owner of a dry cleaner saying he couldn't pay the wages his employees were being offered elsewhere without shrinking his business, moving upmarket. Restaurants are in much the same boat.
              Tightened immigration has made matters even tighter.

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              • #9
                Originally posted by flatsixer View Post
                Tightened immigration has made matters even tighter.
                Flat, where are you getting this idea on immigration?

                Also, I think people have resigned themselves to paying, MUCH, higher prices for goods and services. Pisses me off but it hasn’t stopped me, and countless others, from going out.

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                • #10
                  A lot of forces putting pressure on inflation. Did I ever tell you the story about when I was a stockbroker during inflation and I had a hard time selling Pacific Power & Light BAA 10-year non-callable bonds at 18%? I MADE folks buy them.
                  John Audette
                  www.911bestinclass.com

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                  • #11
                    Having 19 grandchildren between the ages of 17 and 29, and many are very left leaning..I watch them navigate today's economy... it's amazing what they forgo to avoid striving for advancement in their employment. Many barter services and diligently work at keeping their income at a low level to access state ( VT) supported medical for their children,
                    are just some of the techniques employed to 'beat the system' ... Our borrowing and deficit spending will have an effect on their futures that they refuse to acknowledge. Their solution is to spend less on National Defense... China is watching!

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                    • #12
                      hmmmmmmmmmm....
                      interesting..........
                      so. maybe if there was universal health care. first of all, people are more productive and engaged when they are healthy/not sick.
                      AND with your observation. if they had health coverage, they would work on the tax rolls.
                      both of these would produce more tax revenue to pay for the government sponsored health care.........

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                      • #13
                        Bob, Please provide a government run health care system that exists without a VAT, most 20% or better, a very regressive tax , hits the lower and middle class the hardest

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                        • #14
                          hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
                          the same kind of VAT that the republicans put forth for their 1.5 trillion giveaway to the world's largest companies.
                          we Americans can afford it . just look at all the other things we absorbed like water off a ducks back.
                          it's the Republicans that squeal that the sky is falling any time there is a desire to do something constructive for our society.

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                          • #15
                            Bob, Are you able to address a question with some critical thinking or or you just another democrat ' wind up doll' that spits out the bile that you are fed by the corporate media?
                            Most if not all National Health Systems that I'm aware of tax their citizens with a high VAT.. I'm happy to pay a VAT for good health coverage for those folks who are unable to afford adequate coverage.. Killing our present system will be difficult as too many voters are quite happy with their coverage. Frank

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