The Economy

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

It has to happen sooner or later. Is anyone interested in chatting about the economy, err global crash? It would be interested to make a list of the economic black clouds around the world right now and discuss them. It would probably devolve into babbling about politics but it might interesting until then. Any survivalist thoughts out there? A friend of mind in Montana says that folks are pouring into the state. Many believe there is a change in world order beginning and I tend to agree. Has anyone followed Ray Dalio's brilliant work on long-term cycles?

I find this video to be enormously interesting: https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8

[JP aka LiveFromNY Find all posts View Profile Close JP]

The scary part is the blinders. There is literally nobody in our government engaging in real conversations about the difficult decisions that must be made regarding our spending, deficits, and debt. And we're rapdily appraoching the end of any runway that will allow even a remotely soft landing. I feel sorry for the young people today.

[flatsixer aka rstarga Find all posts View Profile Close flatsixer]

It has to happen sooner or later. Is anyone interested in chatting about the economy, err global crash? It would be interested to make a list of the economic black clouds around the world right now and discuss them. It would probably devolve into babbling about politics but it might interesting until then. Any survivalist thoughts out there? A friend of mind in Montana says that folks are pouring into the state. Many believe there is a change in world order beginning and I tend to agree. Has anyone followed Ray Dalio's brilliant work on long-term cycles?

I find this video to be enormously interesting: https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8

Yes Dalio is prescient. Why Montana? Nothing there and it gets too cold.
Should be moving to China.

[bob joyce 2.4L Find all posts View Profile Close bob joyce]

i will be keeping an eye on this space,
very interesting
and thanks to the contributors in advance.

[sebaroher Seabass Find all posts View Profile Close sebaroher]

A friend of mind in Montana says that folks are pouring into the state.

The same down here in Florida. I'm glad I bought before everything went stupid. Mostly everything up for sale currently ends up going into a bidding war. Great time to be a seller, however, if you intend to stay in the area it doesn't make much sense to sell right now. Supply has not seemed to catch up with demand in this area. New houses going up with the inflated prices due to market and high costs of building materials. I tend to think we may be heading to another crash in the near future if things keep their current trends. Stocks and crypt currently in the toilet, I wonder if we are already seeing the signs of the bubble about to burst?

[Crankys Paint 2.0L Find all posts View Profile Close Crankys Paint]

WHO and WEF are both having meetings in a few weeks. Listen to what they say. They're not hiding anything. James Lindsay is a great source of info, also a podcast called "part of the problem" with Dave Smith and of course the great Ron Paul liberty report. They have all been spot on accurate these past 2 years.

"By 2030 you will own nothing and be happy". Certainly on track for that plan.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

Great topic! Thanks John.

I am but a simple pauper however I may also represent the majority of people in this community. In spite of that my input is but a thin fart in this discussion. The immediate question is of course: What are the actual bellwethers that should trigger direct and immediate action in regard to wealth? Should we hold self-indulgent, appreciating hard assets like floating and rolling stock? Will the affluent always enjoy their luxuries and will demand be maintained? Will our rolling and floating delights be a hedge against inflation?

John, I agree that going into political diatribes in this thread might be a distraction however we have to address the phenomenon of "The Haves" voting against their own long term, self-interests. Kalifornia probably being the poster child for this. I would love some educated commentary on this.

Dalio's YouTube video: 13M views in 6 weeks tells you something. ("The Vulnerables"... Love that description of trust-fund dependents!) The video is a great commentary on historical and current patterns. (For those who are lazy or impatient go straight to 39:29.)

The fundamental principle?

"Earn more than we spend and treat each other well."

Hopefully the U.S. in particular will make a large course-correction before this happens:

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

The war in Ukraine seems odd to me. It seems pointedly capricious and random. I'm usually not prone to developing conspiracy theories but I have a few speculative thoughts. First of all, the ultimate "solution" in most economic / financial crises is war. Russia's economy is poor of course but the biggie is China. We know that they are doing poorly, but we just don't know how poorly given their secretive nature and prevarication. While we focus on the next quarter here in the U.S., China does things based on extremely long-term thinking, perhaps as long as 100 years. For decades now they have been steadily building their presence and influence around the world with their Belt and Road Initiative. Much more effective than force, they have become partners with numerous nations by building infrastructure: roads, railways, harbors and airports. They have built numerous coal fired electrical generation plants, exporting vast amounts of coal. They practically own Africa at this point.



And China and Russia have a cozy relationship based primarily of Russia's oil exports to China which are vital to both. Interesting that they are now settling in Rubles instead of dollars, perhaps a first step moving the world to Yuans as the global currency.

So, we have three important elements: China's striving for global hegemony, Russia and China's mutual economic dependence, and Russia and China's mutual economic problems. Perhaps they have a pact to stir things up, starting with a war in Ukraine. China the brains and Russia the muscle. And perhaps that could escalate into a proxy war with NATO on one side and the two bad guys on the other. Nothing like a war to boost the economy while focusing the population's attention away from their economic woes. Remembering history, WWII was started by Germany largely to solve their hyper-inflation woes. And, ending with the U.S. winning, it established the U.S. as the world's dominant power and the dollar as the global currency.

So my main fear right now is expansion in the war in Ukraine as Russia continues to provoke in untoward ways. It looks like this could easily result in a proxy war, which would inevitably expand geographically. Finland, with its 800 mile border with Russia, and Sweden, are aware of that which is why they are joining NATO. Meanwhile China sits back with clean hands while they use Covid as an excuse to cut off the supply of goods to the U.S. and let the Russians do the dirty work.

I don't believe that anything is random if China is involved. They are not only smart they are clever and street smart.

Cheers,
John

[JP aka LiveFromNY Find all posts View Profile Close JP]

Just came back from doing some shopping with my wife and filling up her new Macan. Inflation is real. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it. Whole Foods is selling $9 eggs. Can I assume there's a $5 bill tucked inside the carton?

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

Hang on everyone. We're on the cusp of The Big One. The can has been kicked down the road for too long. There are so many dots converging it's scary.

[flatsixer aka rstarga Find all posts View Profile Close flatsixer]

You guys are pus*ys I remember getting a deal at 14% 30 year mortgage and 21% on a CD. That was before China produced everything, only Granada and Central America were being bombed and Miami was living off coke money. Fun times!

[sebaroher Seabass Find all posts View Profile Close sebaroher]

Just came back from doing some shopping with my wife and filling up her new Macan. Inflation is real. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it. Whole Foods is selling $9 eggs. Can I assume there's a $5 bill tucked inside the carton?

Damn JP.... might be cheaper buying a few chickens

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

Here are a few of the dots that I'm referring to. I'm sure there are more:

• Inflation ?
• Deflation ?
• Stagflation ? My best guess.
• Very long-term cycles moving against us (Ray Dalio)
• Internal conflict in the U.S.
• Supply Chain issues
• U.S. debt
• World debt
• China's shut down of goods production under the cover of Covid measures
• Stock market crash
• Housing market crash
• Wealth inequality
• Trucking industry crisis: can't get parts or drivers, diesel prices
• Global warming / climate change, natural disasters
• Little or no CapEx in the commodities sector for years
• World declining population
• War in Ukraine and possible spread
• Nukes
• China-Russia alliance
• Potential of the dollar being displaced as global currency
• Work ethic dying, young people quitting jobs
• Idiot government
• Idiot Fed (stupid since Volker)
• Poor education system
• 2024 election endangered, possibility of revolution
• General decline of moral values
• High drug addiction
• High suicide rate

I'm sure that I missed many.

It's not obvious but this list was compiled by an optimist (me). I'm wide open to a list of good news.

Cheers,
John

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

I saw something today that I found alarming. The City of Bend, not a huge city but a desirable place to live for many, has 35 job openings. Historically those are pretty good jobs: impossible to get fired, decent pay, easy work and great benefits. But no takers. There are at least two things that might be causing this. It's impossible to afford housing, houses or apartments, on starting pay. And then of course young folks don't want a real job as they are all pursuing their side hustles. This country has *completely* changed since I was young.

[JP aka LiveFromNY Find all posts View Profile Close JP]

You guys are pus*ys I remember getting a deal at 14% 30 year mortgage and 21% on a CD. That was before China produced everything, only Granada and Central America were being bombed and Miami was living off coke money. Fun times!

!!!!!