Assessing risk

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

I deal with lots of personalities; mostly Type A. I find it fascinating how they evaluate risk/reward.

I had a situation recently where a 991 owner (an engineer no less!) thought it was "safe" to have a shop in Austin disassemble his PDK to replace the distance sensor inside it. This shop had never done the procedure and ended up destroying a proprietary ZF bearing. ZF nor Porsche offers the bearing separately and there's no equivalent aftermarket bearing available. So now he's had a dead 991 for 4 months and no way to fix it. And apparently the "up and coming Porsche shop" in Austin (his words) isn't willing to buy him a replacement transmission. (Probably because they told him straight up "NO WARRANTY" on customer supplied parts. (He provided his own T-Design sensor.)

He knew this procedure is one of our specialties and 997/991/981/718 owners ship their cars from around the country to us for this job. Yet, he thought it was a grand idea to try and save money by rolling the dice on a local shop. When he contacted us looking for a bearing I called him out on being the smartest one in the room and he feigned outrage of course.

I'm dying to know: How do you guys measure risk so that you can make informed decisions? Also looking for a good read on this if you have suggestions. Thx.

[bob joyce 2.4L Find all posts View Profile Close bob joyce]

i wonder if he "suckered "himself into the deal.
You say he supplied the sensor,
Why.
did he pay a very small price for it?
If so
then he may have thought he was saving money because the "new" shop would allow customers to supply parts.
He would have known (I assume) that you would not allow him to supply parts.
his decision would have been binary.
it is hard to believe that the "new " shop would not warn him that their failure would be on him.
so, the shop got onsite training at his expense.
moral of the story is experience and expertise matters.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

Bob,

We've noticed a trend over the last few years: New customers will contact us for an appointment to install a part or component system they've already purchased. They have neither the personal skill, tools, shop, or a "friend" to install said parts. We kindly tell them "Sorry; We won't install customer-supplied parts. Our margins are built around parts/labor and we won't take on the liability or the possible hit to our reputation if your part fails."

This is nothing more than consumers believing they can save money which I find absolutely mind-blowing. Are current consumers that ignorant as to how a specialized retail business works? Or they just don't care?

[jaudette3 Really? Find all posts View Profile Close jaudette3]

He might be an engineer but he needs a more sophisticated definition of "value". A weighted combination of price, knowledge (reputation and experience of the repair shop) and guarantee might be a good place to start for a repair of this type. He might be a nickel-dick.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

John,

"Value" should always be the goal; which he claimed he was after.
I fully believe he completely underestimated the risk involved which I find very hard to believe for an engineer. That's what's so intriguing about this and why I would love to know how all of you evaluate risk before making decisions.

[jaudette3]

With Porsches it's simple. Reputation of the shop.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

Forget auto repair. I’m talking more philosophically.

What tools or principles do you apply when assessing risk if there’s safety, security, or treasure on the line? Do you actually identify and measure probability, impact, consequences, etc?

[jaudette3]

Pretty primal, but after so many years on this planet I pretty much go with my gut. It took me a long time to reach that point because I am naive and trusting by nature.

[Theunz 2.0L Find all posts View Profile Close Theunz]

It sounds to me that the shop over sold their abilities. Did the sensor he supplied cause the bearing failure or did they just reassemble it incorrectly? I don’t think that the failure of a customer supplied part gives the shop Cart-blanche to deny responsibility for shoddy work unrelated to said part. If the failure was not caused by the part then I would have my day in court. That being said, I fully understand why the shop needs to figure the profit from parts sales into their costs, and that there is a quantifiable value to experience and knowledge.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

The shop damaged the bearing while pressing the housing on.

[Tom F2 2.4 Find all posts View Profile Close Tom F2]

I don't understand what the engineer knew or could have known. Does Porsche even publish repair procedures for the PDK?

[RDB 2.0L Find all posts View Profile Close RDB]

Maybe he can get a parts car from Copart.

Paul Pelosi's '21 C4s is coming up soon

https://www.copart.com/lot/52522972/...-s-ca-martinez

[Silverc4s]

That’s funny right there…

[simonjb 2.0L Find all posts View Profile Close simonjb]

One of my roles is Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). It’s easy to identify risks - hard to measure and even harder to place a probability. However, one question I like to ask when we are looking at doing something new is “what’s the worst thing that could happen?” Why? Because sometimes it happens. If the gentleman had asked himself that question he might have had Becks do the work.

[Frank Beck Banned Find all posts View Profile Close Frank Beck]

“what’s the worst thing that could happen?” Why? Because sometimes it happens.

Yahtzee!
That's exactly what I was looking for! One has to ask that very question, at least in relative terms any time there's a fair amount on the line. It's my personal opinion that this gentleman threw aside his training as an engineer and made a very poor decision. I would still like to know why.

Tom,
Your question, "Does Porsche even publish repair procedures for the PDK?"

No. Their solution is to replace the PDK with a complete, reman unit. These distance sensor failures have been around since the PDK was introduced but a spare part was never offered to solve the problem. An entrepreneur in the Midwest designed and brought to market a replacement 16 months ago and we ramped up immediately to become proficient in the procedure. I believe there's only one other shop in the U.S. that does anywhere close to the number that we do. Great shop but they're in the Atlanta area.

[flatsixer aka rstarga Find all posts View Profile Close flatsixer]

“what’s the worst thing that could happen?” Why? Because sometimes it happens."

If that was the only criteria one would never get out of bed.
Yes start with that, but then ask "what do I think the probability is that that will occur", then "Is it worth it to me as an acceptable risk?"

[simonjb]

OF course - but then you are up against the hardest question - the Probability. That is why risk mitigation plans are really at the heart of risk management. Of course, if the risk risk is Catastrophic, but the probability is only 10% you likely would not do it - for example if it would bankrupt the company.

[moito tu felix austria Find all posts View Profile Close moito]

Forget auto repair. I’m talking more philosophically.

What tools or principles do you apply when assessing risk if there’s safety, security, or treasure on the line? Do you actually identify and measure probability, impact, consequences, etc?

i strictly go by gut feeling...mine or those of others

[J Schiavone a.k.a. John912 Find all posts View Profile Close J Schiavone]

IMO, most people grossly underestimate the skill and knowledge needed to be a technician, falsely believing "how hard can it be." They really don't see it as risk -- to them, all parts and technicians are the same so just go with lowest cost.